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~ similar to 2605.30319· 19 results

math.STstat.MEstat.MLRecentJun 4, 2026

Optimally taming biases in black-box models for efficient semiparametric estimation

Yihong Gu, Qishuo Yin, Tianxi Cai, Jianqing Fan

The paper proposes a new, optimal estimator for semiparametric inference that improves upon standard double machine learning (DML) rates by eliminating the first-order stochastic error of nuisance fun…

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stat.MEcs.AIRecentMay 31, 2026

Topological Ignorability for Structural Causal Effects Beyond Means

Usef Faghihi

This paper introduces topological-geometrical metrics to estimate structural causal effects that are missed by traditional mean-based methods, proposing a new concept called topological ignorability.

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cs.CLcs.AIRecentMay 28, 2026

Predicting Causal Effects from Natural Language Queries using Structured Representations

Giuliano Martinelli, Piriyakorn Piriyatamwong, Abelardo Carlos Martinez Lorenzo, Jasmin Baier +6 more

The paper introduces Query2Effect, a large-scale benchmark, and a two-step framework to predict causal effect sizes from natural language queries, showing that structured representation significantly…

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cs.CRRecentApr 17, 2026

Privacy, Prediction, and Allocation

Ben Jacobsen, Nitin Kohli

This paper analyzes the trade-offs between privacy, efficiency, and targeting precision in aid allocation systems by studying private variants of both individual and unit-level allocation strategies.

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cs.LGcs.AIRecentMay 31, 2026

What Makes a Strong Model? A Unified Spectral Analysis of Knowledge Transfer over High-dimensional Linear Regression

Wendao Wu, Fangqing Zhang, Haihan Zhang, Cong Fang

This paper develops a unified spectral analysis framework to explain how knowledge transfer (KT) works across different machine learning regimes, such as Knowledge Distillation and Weak-to-Strong gene…

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cs.LGcs.AIRecentMay 27, 2026

Learning Theory of the SVRG: Generalization and Convergence Analysis

Yunwen Lei, Zimeng Wang, Xiaoming Yuan

This paper provides the first non-vacuous generalization analysis for the Stochastic Variance Reduced Gradient (SVRG) method by establishing sharp, data-dependent algorithmic stability bounds, thereby…

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math.STstat.MEstat.MLTheoreticalRecentJun 9, 2026

Conformal Prediction for Dyadic Regression Under Complex Missingness

Robert Lunde, Minjie Yang, Elizaveta Levina, Ji Zhu

This paper develops a framework for conformal prediction in dyadic regression problems under complex missingness mechanisms.

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math.STstat.MEstat.MLTheoreticalRecentJun 9, 2026

Conformal Prediction for Dyadic Regression Under Complex Missingness

Robert Lunde, Minjie Yang, Elizaveta Levina, Ji Zhu

This paper develops a framework for conformal prediction in dyadic regression problems under complex missingness mechanisms.

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cs.LGcs.AIstat.MERecentMay 28, 2026

The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly of Markov Boundary for Tabular Prediction

Shu Wan, Abhinav Gorantla, Huan Liu, K. Selçuk Candan

While restricting a model to the theoretical Markov boundary can significantly improve prediction, the practical process of discovering and using this boundary is often computationally infeasible and…

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cs.AIcs.LGstat.MLRecentMay 31, 2026

Transferring Information Across Interventions in Causal Bayesian Optimization

Mohammad Ali Javidian

The paper proposes graph-coupled causal Bayesian optimization, a method that improves efficiency by sharing information across related interventions through a shared set of causal parameters.

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cs.LGcs.AIstat.MLRecentMay 30, 2026

A Practical Upper Bound on Selection Bias Effects in Medical Prediction Models

Kara Liu, Maggie Wang, Russ B. Altman

The paper proposes a novel, practical upper bound to estimate the worst-case performance of medical prediction models on the target population, even when the selection bias mechanism and target data a…

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cs.IRcs.AIRecentJun 1, 2026

Rank-Constrained Deep Matrix Completion for Group Recommendation

Mubaraka Sani Ibrahim, Lehel Csató, Isah Charles Saidu

The paper proposes Group Rank-Constrained Deep Matrix Completion (Group RC-DMC), a novel framework that jointly leverages low-rank structure and attention-based modeling to provide accurate group reco…

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cs.AIRecentMay 29, 2026

Formalizing and falsifying causal pathways of rare events

Anahita Haghighat, Dominik Janzing

The paper formalizes the concept of a causal pathway for rare events, showing that testable implications can be derived solely from this pathway abstraction, simplifying complex causal modeling.

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cs.AIcs.LGRecentMay 29, 2026

TIGER: Traceable Inference with Graph-Based Evidence Routing for Mitigating Hallucinations in Multimodal Generation

Kaixiang Zhao, Tianrun Yu, Shawn Huang, Porter Jenkins +2 more

TIGER is an inference-time framework that uses graph-based evidence routing to independently assess and repair unsupported facts (hallucinations) in multimodal generation.

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cs.LGmath.OCmath.PREmpiricalRecentJun 9, 2026

Data-Driven Dynamic Assortment in Online Platforms: Learning about Two Sides

Rahul Roy, Nur Sunar, Jayashankar M. Swaminathan

This paper studies a dynamic assortment problem on a two-sided service platform with incomplete information and heterogeneous customers, and develops a data-driven algorithm to learn parameters and op…

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cs.LGmath.OCmath.PREmpiricalRecentJun 9, 2026

Data-Driven Dynamic Assortment in Online Platforms: Learning about Two Sides

Rahul Roy, Nur Sunar, Jayashankar M. Swaminathan

This paper studies a dynamic assortment problem on a two-sided service platform with incomplete information and heterogeneous customers, and develops a data-driven algorithm to learn parameters and op…

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cs.LGcs.AIRecentMay 30, 2026

The Paradox of Outcome Optimization: A Causal Information-Theoretic Bound on Reasoning Shortcuts in LLMs

Zihan Chen, Yiming Zhang, Wenxiang Geng, Zenghui Ding +1 more

The paper theoretically explains that optimizing LLMs solely on outcomes leads to brittle reasoning (Reward-Induced Manifold Collapse) by favoring low-complexity shortcuts, and proposes process-based…

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cs.CRcs.DScs.LGRecentMay 27, 2026

Privately Estimating Monotone Statistics in Polynomial Time

Gavin Brown, Ephraim Linder, Mahbod Majid, Vikrant Singhal

The paper introduces novel, efficient differentially private algorithms for estimating monotone statistics, significantly improving sample complexity compared to existing methods.

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cs.AIRecentMay 27, 2026

Reward Bias Substitution: Single-Axis Bias Mitigations Redirect Optimization Pressure

Max Lamparth, Daniel Fein, Andreas Haupt, Marcel Hussing +1 more

The paper introduces 'reward bias substitution,' demonstrating that single-axis mitigations of reward model biases merely shift optimization pressure to correlated proxies, and proposes augmenting eva…

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