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20 results for “uncertainty modeling”

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cs.AIcs.LGRecentMay 30, 2026

EnergyMamba: An Uncertainty-Aware Graph-Enhanced Selective State Space Model for Energy Consumption Prediction

Dahai Yu, Rongchao Xu, Lin Jiang, Guang Wang

EnergyMamba proposes an uncertainty-aware, graph-enhanced selective state space model to significantly improve both the accuracy and reliability of energy consumption prediction by explicitly modeling…

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eess.ASEmpiricalRecentJul 8, 2026

UBG-Net: An Uncertainty-aware Bayesian Gating Network for Robust Audio-Visual Speech Recognition

Jinjie Fu, Hang Chen, Wu Guo, Zhijun Zhang +2 more

This paper proposes a framework, UBG-Net, for robust audio-visual speech recognition using a Modality Uncertainty-aware Bayesian Fusion mechanism and Distribution Uncertainty-aware Hierarchical Voting…

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cs.CLcs.AIcs.LGRecentJun 1, 2026

The Role of Ambiguity in Error Prediction via Uncertainty Quantification

Ieva Raminta Staliūnaitė, James Bishop, Andreas Vlachos

This paper proposes a method to improve error prediction for LLMs by explicitly disentangling input ambiguity from standard Uncertainty Quantification signals, showing that ambiguity information signi…

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cs.AIRecentMay 27, 2026

Localizing Input Uncertainty Quantification for Large Language Models via Shapley Values

Seongjun Lee, Suwan Yoon, Changhee Lee

The paper proposes Shapley-based input uncertainty Quantification (ShaQ), a novel framework that uses Shapley values to precisely attribute input-induced uncertainty to specific spans of text, providi…

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cs.AIeess.SYEmpiricalRecentJul 12, 2026

Learning Linear Temporal Specifications from Demonstrations with Uncertainty

Parastou Fahim, Constantino Lagoa, Rômulo Meira-G'oes

This paper presents a framework for learning minimal Linear Temporal Logic (LTL) formulas from uncertain system demonstrations, reducing the problem to Pseudo-Boolean Optimization.

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cs.AIRecentJun 1, 2026

Does Compression Preserve Uncertainty? A Unified Benchmark for Quantized and Sparse LLMs via Conformal Prediction

Yujia Tong, Yuxi Wang, Yunyang Wan, Tian Zhang +2 more

This paper investigates whether model compression techniques (like quantization and pruning) preserve a Large Language Model's ability to quantify its own uncertainty, finding that accuracy-only evalu…

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cs.LGcs.AIcs.CERecentMay 28, 2026

Benchmarking Machine Learning Uncertainty Quantification Methodologies for Predicting Turbine Gas Temperature Degradation

Jostein Barry-Straume, Changmin Son, Adrian Sandu, Gavan Burke +3 more

This paper benchmarks five distinct uncertainty quantification methods—including Delta, Bayesian Dropout, and Bootstrap—to determine the optimal approach for predicting turbine gas temperature degrada…

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cs.CRRecentApr 21, 2026

Sensitivity Uncertainty Alignment in Large Language Models

Prakul Sunil Hiremath, Harshit R. Hiremath

The paper proposes Sensitivity-Uncertainty Alignment (SUA), a framework that measures the misalignment between a model's prediction instability and its stated uncertainty to improve model reliability.

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cs.LGcs.CVEmpiricalRecentJun 30, 2026

CoMet: Context and Multiplicity Decomposition for Multimodal Uncertainty Estimation

Sanghyuk Chun, William Yang, Amaya Dharmasiri, Olga Russakovsky

The paper proposes CoMet, a method for uncertainty estimation in multimodal large language models, which decomposes uncertainty into context-specific and multiplicity-specific terms.

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stat.MEeess.SPEmpiricalRecentJul 24, 2026

A Hierarchical Likelihood Model for Non-linear Inverse Problems under Additive and Multiplicative Noise

Nicolas Goeman, Pierre-Antoine Thouvenin, Pierre Chainais

This paper proposes a hierarchical Bayesian model and an efficient MCMC algorithm to tackle ill-posed inverse problems in the presence of non-linear forward models, additive and multiplicative noise,…

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cs.LGcs.AIRecentMay 27, 2026

Online Irregular Multivariate Time Series Forecasting via Uncertainty-Driven Dual-Expert Calibration

Haonan Wen, Hanyang Chen, Songhe Feng

The paper proposes Under-Cali, an uncertainty-driven dual-expert calibration framework, to achieve stable and efficient online forecasting for irregularly sampled multivariate time series.

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cs.LGcs.AIRecentMay 29, 2026

From Rashomon Theory to PRAXIS: Efficient Decision Tree Rashomon Sets

Zakk Heile, Hayden McTavish, Varun Babbar, Margo Seltzer +1 more

The paper introduces PRAXIS, a novel algorithm that efficiently approximates the computation of 'Rashomon sets' for decision trees, significantly reducing memory and runtime complexity.

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cs.CRRecentApr 10, 2026

Hagenberg Risk Management Process (Part 3): Operationalization, Probabilities, and Causal Analysis

Eckehard Hermann, Harald Lampesberger

The paper introduces a comprehensive framework, Realtime Risk Studio, that operationalizes qualitative risk models (Bowtie diagrams) into formal, probabilistic, and intervention-ready runtime models u…

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cs.CLcs.AIRecentMay 29, 2026

Human-Alignment, Calibration, and Activation Patterns in Large Language Model Uncertainty

Kyle Moore, Jesse Roberts, Daryl Watson, William Ward +1 more

This paper investigates whether large language models exhibit uncertainty signals similar to human judgment, examining both overt behavior and internal activation patterns to assess alignment and cali…

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cs.AIcs.CLcs.LGRecentMay 28, 2026

Conformal Certification of Reasoning Trace Prefixes

Matt Y. Cheung, Ashok Veeraraghavan, Hanjie Chen, Guha Balakrishnan

The paper introduces CROP, a novel conformal procedure that provides rigorous statistical guarantees for certifying the longest safe prefix of a language model's reasoning trace, allowing for targeted…

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cs.LGcs.AIcs.ARRecentJun 3, 2026

Uncertainty-Aware End-to-End Co-Design of Neural Network Processors: From Training and Mapping to Fabrication

Yuyang Du, Yujun Huang, Gioele Zardini

This paper presents a unified framework for end-to-end co-design of neural network processors.

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cs.AIRecentMay 28, 2026

Uncertainty-Aware Transfer Learning for Cross-Building Energy Forecasting: Toward Robust and Scalable District-Level Energy Management

Shadmehr Zaregarizi, Khashayar Yavari

The paper proposes an uncertainty-aware transfer learning framework using the Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT) to achieve robust and scalable energy forecasting across different buildings, demonstrat…

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