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Home/Authors/Jonas Gebele

Jonas Gebele

1 indexed paper

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26

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Comp. Eng.×1

Frequent co-authors

Florian Matthes1×

Research Timeline

2026
When Certainty Is Not Worth It: Capital Lock-Up and Settlement Discounting in Prediction Markets

This paper shows that the pricing of outcomes in prediction markets is significantly influenced by the financial friction of delayed settlement, quantifying this effect using an annualized settlement wedge.

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Papers

cs.CERecentMay 29, 2026

When Certainty Is Not Worth It: Capital Lock-Up and Settlement Discounting in Prediction Markets

Jonas Gebele, Florian Matthes

This paper shows that the pricing of outcomes in prediction markets is significantly influenced by the financial friction of delayed settlement, quantifying this effect using an annualized settlement…

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