Accuracy, Stability, and Repeated-Run Reliability of Large Language Models on Deterministic Programming Tasks
The paper demonstrates that standard LLM evaluation metrics overestimate performance because they fail to account for the stability of outcomes, showing a significant gap between reported pass rates and actual retry-free coverage.
Abstract
More Like ThisRun-level pass rate overstates retry-free coverage by up to 17.8 percentage points -- and the gap is largest precisely for mid-performing systems. We investigate this accuracy--stability relationship in large language model (LLM) evaluation for deterministic text-conditioned generation, using programming tasks as a concrete testbed. Standard code-generation benchmarks emphasize single-run accuracy or eventual success under repeated sampling, but many deployment settings also require stability: consistent outcomes across repeated invocations under the same task description. We present a repeated-run evaluation protocol with metrics for run-level accuracy, retry-free coverage, and per-problem variability. On a recency-based benchmark of 100 LeetCode-style problems, we evaluate 16 models from five provider families under two prompt templates with five repeated runs per problem, yielding 16,000 evaluation instances. Although run-level pass rate and perfect stability rate are strongly correlated (r=0.985), pass rate consistently exceeds retry-free coverage -- a gap that reaches 17.8 percentage points and reverses model rankings even among closely matched systems. Prompt effects are model-dependent rather than uniformly beneficial. These results suggest that repeated-run stability analysis is a necessary complement to conventional accuracy reporting for deterministic text-conditioned generation tasks.